The curtain raiser of the festival and this year it looks quite the puzzle to solve. Trying to judge festival targets, having to forgive disappointing runs and trying to take a view which side of the sea the novice form is stronger on! We are about six weeks away and its 10/1 the field which tells you how hard it is to get a handle on the race and find a standout.
Irving:
Current favourite in the betting and i know a lot of people that like this one. He has done nothing wrong in his three starts but i am just not convinced about the form of his wins. Only one horse has come out and won from his three races.
December Ascot:
-Prince Siegfried (who was probably going to be second but was still beside the winner)was alongside last time when falling at the last was well beat in the Tolworth by 22l when last of 6 behind Royal Boy
-Spash of Ginge who was 6l behind in third was beat 16l by Deputy Dan next time out
November Ascot:
-A Hares Breath(getting 5lbs) was second beaten 4l(first start of the season) was beaten 9l in fourth by Josses Hill next time out
-Fond Memory (getting 5lbs) was fourth beaten 8l and was beaten 30+ by Ballyalton next time out.
November Taunton:
-Cup Final 4l back in second not been since through injury but was beaten further by the Skyfarmer the time before
-Magic Money8l back in third was beaten out of sight in a handicap off 106 next time out.
At the moment he has of course won all his races easily and hard to know how good he is, but the quality of what he has beaten, makes me really question the form. His next outing is in the betfair hurdle and we will know a lot more about him then and will be a deserving favourite if he goes close off a mark of 143.
Vautour
Opinions ore divided on this one as he looked sure to be Willie Mullins' first string here before running last time. All the money on the run up to his race was for him to win this. His price varies from 7/1 to 12/1 with the bookmakers and even they are struggling to get a grasp on him. I think there has been a very negative view taken of his win last time due to the second being handled by unfashionable connections. But think it is a lot better than people are giving him credit for.
He easily won his maiden hurdle first time of asking for the stable when cantering clear of subsequent 15l winner Lieutenant Colonel at Navan over 2m.
After than run he went off at the prohibitive odds of 1/4 to win the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer Novices hurdle at Navan and win he did but not in the fashion many expected. He was made work hard and had to gallop all the way to the line to beat Western Boy and those two pulled 11 lengths clear of the third (who was beaten close to the same distance in the Grade1 Royal Bond) up the straight.
Just to put it into perspective - Western Boy won nicely on his 2 previous runs.
Won his bumper at Thurles by 2 1/2l from Mm Dazzler who won next time out by 5l.
Won what looked a very competitive maiden hurdle at Leopardstown going away by 3 1/2l.
Kylestyle in 2nd won easily next time out
Sizing Codelco beat 10l in 6th won next time out
The Winkler beat 21l in 10th won next time out
Add to that the 3rd and 4th - 3rd: Daneking argubaly would have won next time without a very bad mistake and 4th: Chancol was going very well next time out and looked the winner when coming down
Overall his form has a decent look to it and think many have underrated this formline due to the price Vautour went off on the day and expecting him to win easier. To my mind he just met a very decent rival on the day and showed he can battle when required. But at 12/1, i cant say he makes much appeal from an Antepost point of view as i dont think he will be a whole lot shorter if turning up here on the day.
Josses Hill:
Two out of three for his new stable since being purchased after his debut second behind Faugheen. Easily winning his bumper and maiden hurdle and looked one that would improve for the experience. Looked very green when winning his bumper but showed that experience did him the world of good when looking a lot more professional when easily winning his maiden hurdle at Newbury.
-Tiqris 4l back 3rd won easily last weekend.
Then he went to the Tolworth as the stable first string and stepped up on that form again when just going down in the final strides to his stablemate Royal Boy. But once more, as with some of the english formlines its hard to get a grasp on it. The Liquidator who was a well backed favourite clearly didnt run his race as he stopped like he was shot turning in. Garde La Victoire was keen and didn't get home in the ground. Upazo who would'nt be next or near the top of Willie Mullins' Novice hurdle ranks was 3rd but the front 2 did pull 11l clear of him.Was it a case of the front 2 handling the soft ground and others not handling it? Royal Boy was proven over further and in the end it was stamina won the day for him. I would nt rule out Josses Hill and he would probably be at the top of the english 2m novices for me. Seems to be improving with each run and will be aimed here. 14/1 is a fair price for those who like him.
West Wizard;
Antepost favourite for the race most of the autumn after being shouted from the rooftops by connections.
Went off an odds on favourite on debut at Kempton in March when gliding to a effortless 6 lengths victory over
-The Pirates Queen - won next time out and second in a listed hurdle last time
-The Skyfarmer 8l behind in 3rd won his next 4 starts and is now rated 140
Was then put away for the summer to allow him to mature and fill out his frame more. He came out then in November in a maiden hurdle at Kempton where he went off an unbackable 1/6 shot but things didn't go to plan and he was beaten from a long way out and was a well held second behind Sgt Reckless. Nicky Hendersons horses were not running well at that time and i would be very confident he is much better than that as he and Barry Geraghty know a good one when they see it and really like this fella. We did get an update last week that the horse is fine and they are waiting for better ground before letting him run. But the big break he has had, coupled with his lack of experience doesnt entile him to be 5th favourite at this stage of the season.
Valseur Lido:
Probably the hardest horse in the field to get a handle on - has to be put in the "could be anything" category. Effortless winner of both his starts since coming over from France. Hasn't had to come out of second gear on both occasions, jumped and travelled like a very good horse but its impossible to judge the form. All his runs have been on bottomless ground too which would be a slight worry come March. Has an entry in the Deloitte and we may know a lot more about him then but could be one kept at home with the future in mind?
Others of note:
Western Boy - discussed above with Vautour. Could be overlooked if travelling over and would definitely be interesting ew at a price. Form has worked out well
Royal Boy: Being aimed at the Neptune
Zamdy Man: 3/3 this year and has improved massively for the summer on his back. Disposed of the expensive David Pipe purchase Un Temps Pour Tout last weekend in the Supreme trial at Haydock. Form of his Listed win at Haydock in November looks solid too - The second (who he gave 8lbs to) won by 4 1/2l next time out. Could be argued he is overpriced but would be very disappointing if he was good enough to win a Supreme.
The Liquidator: Grade 1 bumper winner at Punchestown to end last seasonin a race that has produced numerous winners. Effortless winner of his first two hurdle starts including a 15l demolition of Sea Lord at Cheltenham who is a very decent yardstick. Went off a very well backed favourite for the Tolworth but disappointed massively when beat a long way out. They still have not got to the bottom of what went wrong and that would be a worry and would have to see him fit and well on the track again before backing him Antepost.
Red Sherlock: Very likeable sort who is unbeaten in 5 starts. Last 2 wins have been over 2m4f and 2m5f and is entered in the Neptune trial tomorrow at Cheltenham so you would think he will be aimed at the longer race.
Aklan: Very decent on the flat and an easy winner on hurdles debut, but had absolutely nothing to beat when Chancol came to grief.
First Mohican: 106 rated on the flat and now with Alan King. Not been seen over a hurdle in public yet and must be a doubt he will make the gig in March.
Moyle Park: A horse i really like but does himself no favours by being extremely keen in his races. 2/2 in bumpers and a very easy winner of his maiden hurdle (2nd won easily last week). And he looked the winner turning in, when last seen in the Future Champions Grade 1 at Leopardstown before fading to third. Ruby said he pulled too hard and had nothing left. A fast run 2m in the Supreme could bring out the best in him if he turns up on the day but that must be questionable with the owner having Vautour also.
Wilde Blue Yonder: Would arguably be 3/3 this season without falling at the last when last seen. Very gutsy horse who keeps finding when asked. Had Tiqris back in 3rd when winning his maiden hurdle(form ties in with Josses Hill) and Fascino Rustico 20l back in 5th who was just beaten by Amore Alto next time and had Sgt Reckless behind(form with West Wizard) Could be one for the Neptune maybe but where ever he runs he will run a nice race but would like to see a confidence booster first after the fall last time.
And finally onto the selections! I have personally taken the view that the Irish form is stronger. Form of the Grade 1 races is probably not as strong as previous years but i still think it is the best form on offer in what looks a wide open year in the 2m Novice division.
The Tullow Tank:
Has really come to himself this year after needing time to mature. Finished last season by winning a bumper in very eyecatching fashion, travelling well and sprinting clear to win by 9l
-Real Steel in 2nd won on his hurdles debut by 17l
-Timesremembered in 3rd was sold to england and won his 1st 2 starts there including an impressive 6l win in the Persian War at Chepstow before being 2nd to Creepy in a Neptune trial and also 2nd in the Grade 1 Challow to Captain Cutter
The Tullow Tank was then put away for the summer to "grow up" as Philip Fenton put it and he started off this season as he let off. He found a bit of trouble in running 2 out but really quickened to beat Turnandgo who went off a well backed 8/11 favourite on the back of 2 long distance bumper wins including a 9l win over Captain Cutter.
He was then stepped up to Grade 1 class in the Royal Bond Novices hurdle over 2m on good/yielding ground, which was the quickest ground he encountered so far on the racecourse. He jumped and travelled well and showed he can knuckle down to win when getting the better of Renetti late on.
-Renetti was in the process of hosing up at Limerick when falling 2 out
-Very Wood 7l back in 5th was a fast finishing 3l third to Briar Hill next time out
But most behind haven't been seen since.
Then The Tullow Tank turned up in the Paddy Power Grade 1 Future Champions Novices Hurdle and put up his most impressive performance. Easily winning under hands and heels riding and still looking a baby with his ears pricked at the last. He is a dual Grade 1 winner at 2 miles in what so far looks an average Supreme Novices hurdle field. If he was trained by Willie Mullins what price would he be as a dual Grade 1 winner on the back of 4 straight wins? I would venture to say 4/1 maximum(given Vautour is 7s in places!). The Deloitte is going to tell us a lot more in 2 weeks and how interesting would it be if Faugheen turned up? I know there is those who think he is a Neptune horse but i dont see why they would want to step up 5f in trip when you are on a winning run at 2 miles. I know he has looked more of a stayer on his last 2 runs but i have put my take on it below.
Paddy Power Future Champions Novice Hurdle - Grade 1 (2m) Soft
Travelled very well to 2 out - actually took a pull before that he was going so well.
Think the jock got lower in the saddle to ensure he didn't get caught in a pocket, more than it being a case of urgency - you can see from the side on he was rowing along bare hands and heels, never had to go after him so could have been deceptive that he was flat out under pressure but i think that is no where near the truth. The minute he pulled him to the outer of Moyle Park and King of the Picts, the acceleration was instant under the minimum of asking. He passed them and went away in a matter of strides. He had his ears pricked coming to the last and Danny Mullins never reached for his stick which lets me believe there was loads left in the tank as he is a horse that finds under pressure.
Bar One Royal Bond Novices Hurdle - Grade 1 - (2m) Good/Yielding
This was proper good ground 2m race run at a decent clip. The Tullow Tank showed that he can handle the hustle and bustle too after gettin in a bit of a barging match down the back. Once more he quickened nicely to come out of the pack to the outer turnin in, to get a position which shows me he has tactical speed. He was travelling very well turning in to close up on the leader, but a slow jump 2 out where Rennetti pinged gifted that one a 3l lead but once more when the jock got lower in the saddle he quickened immediately and very nicely i thought to close the gap in a matter of strides. Although he was goin away at the line i dont think that screamed that a step up to 2m5f at Cheltenham is what he needs so would be very hopefull the Supreme is where he will turn up.
Sounds like the owner is leaning towards 2m campaign too but that could change next time, Barry Connell interview from during the week :
"He's not short of pace and you'd imagine a true-run two-mile race would be ideal. It will be interesting to see when he goes up to two and a quarter in the Deloitte, that will tell us a bit more.
Arctic Fire:
A horse that wont be on many peoples radar but he is a horse i really like but good ground is a must. Motionless winner first time out for the stable after being bought from France at Tipperary - gave weight and a beating to a solid yardstick in Enchanted Forest and Diyala in 3rd won a Novice hurdle since.
Would have won next time at Gowran Park when coming down, was full of running behind a wall of horses and clipped heels and came down.
But his real eyecatching run was his run in the Royal Bond behind The Tullow Tank when he arguably should have won. He was given way too much to do and made up a massive amount of ground up the straight, even more impressive as he was the only one to come from off the pace and he only went down by 1 1/2l at the line and was making ground hand over fist.
I think his last run in the Future Champions at Leopardstown can be written off as the ground was all wrong for him - Willie Mullins was interviewed on Attheraces the evening before and he said if there was any rain, Arctic fires chance would be gone and of course it proceeded to spill all night long and turned into a slog and that stuck in my head since. He has now got a mark of 138 which could be very interesting if they decided to travel over for a good ground betfair hurdle at Newbury but as with all Mullins handicap horses, we wont know till the final declarations!
So rightly or wrongly i have taken a view that the irish form is slightly better at this stage. The Deloitte is going to be an extremely informative race in 2 weeks and i reckon we will have some big market changes by the time that and the betfair hurdle have passed. The Tullow Tank is a thoroughly likeable sort, travels well through his races and jumps for fun. I think he possesses speed for a Supreme even though plenty disagree with me but also finds under pressure and will keep going to the line which can be a big bonus in a Supreme (Champagne Fever, Al Ferof in recent years). And i don't think he is finished improving yet. Arctic Fire is a more speculative one but i think there is definitely a big race in him and when he gets some decent ground you will see a much better horse than last time.
Selections
The Tullow Tank to win any race at the festival 8/1 Betfair Sportsbook(7/1 WH)
Arctic Fire 33/1 ew Corals
Irving:
Current favourite in the betting and i know a lot of people that like this one. He has done nothing wrong in his three starts but i am just not convinced about the form of his wins. Only one horse has come out and won from his three races.
December Ascot:
-Prince Siegfried (who was probably going to be second but was still beside the winner)was alongside last time when falling at the last was well beat in the Tolworth by 22l when last of 6 behind Royal Boy
-Spash of Ginge who was 6l behind in third was beat 16l by Deputy Dan next time out
November Ascot:
-A Hares Breath(getting 5lbs) was second beaten 4l(first start of the season) was beaten 9l in fourth by Josses Hill next time out
-Fond Memory (getting 5lbs) was fourth beaten 8l and was beaten 30+ by Ballyalton next time out.
November Taunton:
-Cup Final 4l back in second not been since through injury but was beaten further by the Skyfarmer the time before
-Magic Money8l back in third was beaten out of sight in a handicap off 106 next time out.
At the moment he has of course won all his races easily and hard to know how good he is, but the quality of what he has beaten, makes me really question the form. His next outing is in the betfair hurdle and we will know a lot more about him then and will be a deserving favourite if he goes close off a mark of 143.
Vautour
Opinions ore divided on this one as he looked sure to be Willie Mullins' first string here before running last time. All the money on the run up to his race was for him to win this. His price varies from 7/1 to 12/1 with the bookmakers and even they are struggling to get a grasp on him. I think there has been a very negative view taken of his win last time due to the second being handled by unfashionable connections. But think it is a lot better than people are giving him credit for.
He easily won his maiden hurdle first time of asking for the stable when cantering clear of subsequent 15l winner Lieutenant Colonel at Navan over 2m.
After than run he went off at the prohibitive odds of 1/4 to win the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer Novices hurdle at Navan and win he did but not in the fashion many expected. He was made work hard and had to gallop all the way to the line to beat Western Boy and those two pulled 11 lengths clear of the third (who was beaten close to the same distance in the Grade1 Royal Bond) up the straight.
Just to put it into perspective - Western Boy won nicely on his 2 previous runs.
Won his bumper at Thurles by 2 1/2l from Mm Dazzler who won next time out by 5l.
Won what looked a very competitive maiden hurdle at Leopardstown going away by 3 1/2l.
Kylestyle in 2nd won easily next time out
Sizing Codelco beat 10l in 6th won next time out
The Winkler beat 21l in 10th won next time out
Add to that the 3rd and 4th - 3rd: Daneking argubaly would have won next time without a very bad mistake and 4th: Chancol was going very well next time out and looked the winner when coming down
Overall his form has a decent look to it and think many have underrated this formline due to the price Vautour went off on the day and expecting him to win easier. To my mind he just met a very decent rival on the day and showed he can battle when required. But at 12/1, i cant say he makes much appeal from an Antepost point of view as i dont think he will be a whole lot shorter if turning up here on the day.
Josses Hill:
Two out of three for his new stable since being purchased after his debut second behind Faugheen. Easily winning his bumper and maiden hurdle and looked one that would improve for the experience. Looked very green when winning his bumper but showed that experience did him the world of good when looking a lot more professional when easily winning his maiden hurdle at Newbury.
-Tiqris 4l back 3rd won easily last weekend.
Then he went to the Tolworth as the stable first string and stepped up on that form again when just going down in the final strides to his stablemate Royal Boy. But once more, as with some of the english formlines its hard to get a grasp on it. The Liquidator who was a well backed favourite clearly didnt run his race as he stopped like he was shot turning in. Garde La Victoire was keen and didn't get home in the ground. Upazo who would'nt be next or near the top of Willie Mullins' Novice hurdle ranks was 3rd but the front 2 did pull 11l clear of him.Was it a case of the front 2 handling the soft ground and others not handling it? Royal Boy was proven over further and in the end it was stamina won the day for him. I would nt rule out Josses Hill and he would probably be at the top of the english 2m novices for me. Seems to be improving with each run and will be aimed here. 14/1 is a fair price for those who like him.
West Wizard;
Antepost favourite for the race most of the autumn after being shouted from the rooftops by connections.
Went off an odds on favourite on debut at Kempton in March when gliding to a effortless 6 lengths victory over
-The Pirates Queen - won next time out and second in a listed hurdle last time
-The Skyfarmer 8l behind in 3rd won his next 4 starts and is now rated 140
Was then put away for the summer to allow him to mature and fill out his frame more. He came out then in November in a maiden hurdle at Kempton where he went off an unbackable 1/6 shot but things didn't go to plan and he was beaten from a long way out and was a well held second behind Sgt Reckless. Nicky Hendersons horses were not running well at that time and i would be very confident he is much better than that as he and Barry Geraghty know a good one when they see it and really like this fella. We did get an update last week that the horse is fine and they are waiting for better ground before letting him run. But the big break he has had, coupled with his lack of experience doesnt entile him to be 5th favourite at this stage of the season.
Valseur Lido:
Probably the hardest horse in the field to get a handle on - has to be put in the "could be anything" category. Effortless winner of both his starts since coming over from France. Hasn't had to come out of second gear on both occasions, jumped and travelled like a very good horse but its impossible to judge the form. All his runs have been on bottomless ground too which would be a slight worry come March. Has an entry in the Deloitte and we may know a lot more about him then but could be one kept at home with the future in mind?
Others of note:
Western Boy - discussed above with Vautour. Could be overlooked if travelling over and would definitely be interesting ew at a price. Form has worked out well
Royal Boy: Being aimed at the Neptune
Zamdy Man: 3/3 this year and has improved massively for the summer on his back. Disposed of the expensive David Pipe purchase Un Temps Pour Tout last weekend in the Supreme trial at Haydock. Form of his Listed win at Haydock in November looks solid too - The second (who he gave 8lbs to) won by 4 1/2l next time out. Could be argued he is overpriced but would be very disappointing if he was good enough to win a Supreme.
The Liquidator: Grade 1 bumper winner at Punchestown to end last seasonin a race that has produced numerous winners. Effortless winner of his first two hurdle starts including a 15l demolition of Sea Lord at Cheltenham who is a very decent yardstick. Went off a very well backed favourite for the Tolworth but disappointed massively when beat a long way out. They still have not got to the bottom of what went wrong and that would be a worry and would have to see him fit and well on the track again before backing him Antepost.
Red Sherlock: Very likeable sort who is unbeaten in 5 starts. Last 2 wins have been over 2m4f and 2m5f and is entered in the Neptune trial tomorrow at Cheltenham so you would think he will be aimed at the longer race.
Aklan: Very decent on the flat and an easy winner on hurdles debut, but had absolutely nothing to beat when Chancol came to grief.
First Mohican: 106 rated on the flat and now with Alan King. Not been seen over a hurdle in public yet and must be a doubt he will make the gig in March.
Moyle Park: A horse i really like but does himself no favours by being extremely keen in his races. 2/2 in bumpers and a very easy winner of his maiden hurdle (2nd won easily last week). And he looked the winner turning in, when last seen in the Future Champions Grade 1 at Leopardstown before fading to third. Ruby said he pulled too hard and had nothing left. A fast run 2m in the Supreme could bring out the best in him if he turns up on the day but that must be questionable with the owner having Vautour also.
Wilde Blue Yonder: Would arguably be 3/3 this season without falling at the last when last seen. Very gutsy horse who keeps finding when asked. Had Tiqris back in 3rd when winning his maiden hurdle(form ties in with Josses Hill) and Fascino Rustico 20l back in 5th who was just beaten by Amore Alto next time and had Sgt Reckless behind(form with West Wizard) Could be one for the Neptune maybe but where ever he runs he will run a nice race but would like to see a confidence booster first after the fall last time.
And finally onto the selections! I have personally taken the view that the Irish form is stronger. Form of the Grade 1 races is probably not as strong as previous years but i still think it is the best form on offer in what looks a wide open year in the 2m Novice division.
The Tullow Tank:
Has really come to himself this year after needing time to mature. Finished last season by winning a bumper in very eyecatching fashion, travelling well and sprinting clear to win by 9l
-Real Steel in 2nd won on his hurdles debut by 17l
-Timesremembered in 3rd was sold to england and won his 1st 2 starts there including an impressive 6l win in the Persian War at Chepstow before being 2nd to Creepy in a Neptune trial and also 2nd in the Grade 1 Challow to Captain Cutter
The Tullow Tank was then put away for the summer to "grow up" as Philip Fenton put it and he started off this season as he let off. He found a bit of trouble in running 2 out but really quickened to beat Turnandgo who went off a well backed 8/11 favourite on the back of 2 long distance bumper wins including a 9l win over Captain Cutter.
He was then stepped up to Grade 1 class in the Royal Bond Novices hurdle over 2m on good/yielding ground, which was the quickest ground he encountered so far on the racecourse. He jumped and travelled well and showed he can knuckle down to win when getting the better of Renetti late on.
-Renetti was in the process of hosing up at Limerick when falling 2 out
-Very Wood 7l back in 5th was a fast finishing 3l third to Briar Hill next time out
But most behind haven't been seen since.
Then The Tullow Tank turned up in the Paddy Power Grade 1 Future Champions Novices Hurdle and put up his most impressive performance. Easily winning under hands and heels riding and still looking a baby with his ears pricked at the last. He is a dual Grade 1 winner at 2 miles in what so far looks an average Supreme Novices hurdle field. If he was trained by Willie Mullins what price would he be as a dual Grade 1 winner on the back of 4 straight wins? I would venture to say 4/1 maximum(given Vautour is 7s in places!). The Deloitte is going to tell us a lot more in 2 weeks and how interesting would it be if Faugheen turned up? I know there is those who think he is a Neptune horse but i dont see why they would want to step up 5f in trip when you are on a winning run at 2 miles. I know he has looked more of a stayer on his last 2 runs but i have put my take on it below.
Paddy Power Future Champions Novice Hurdle - Grade 1 (2m) Soft
Travelled very well to 2 out - actually took a pull before that he was going so well.
Think the jock got lower in the saddle to ensure he didn't get caught in a pocket, more than it being a case of urgency - you can see from the side on he was rowing along bare hands and heels, never had to go after him so could have been deceptive that he was flat out under pressure but i think that is no where near the truth. The minute he pulled him to the outer of Moyle Park and King of the Picts, the acceleration was instant under the minimum of asking. He passed them and went away in a matter of strides. He had his ears pricked coming to the last and Danny Mullins never reached for his stick which lets me believe there was loads left in the tank as he is a horse that finds under pressure.
Bar One Royal Bond Novices Hurdle - Grade 1 - (2m) Good/Yielding
This was proper good ground 2m race run at a decent clip. The Tullow Tank showed that he can handle the hustle and bustle too after gettin in a bit of a barging match down the back. Once more he quickened nicely to come out of the pack to the outer turnin in, to get a position which shows me he has tactical speed. He was travelling very well turning in to close up on the leader, but a slow jump 2 out where Rennetti pinged gifted that one a 3l lead but once more when the jock got lower in the saddle he quickened immediately and very nicely i thought to close the gap in a matter of strides. Although he was goin away at the line i dont think that screamed that a step up to 2m5f at Cheltenham is what he needs so would be very hopefull the Supreme is where he will turn up.
Sounds like the owner is leaning towards 2m campaign too but that could change next time, Barry Connell interview from during the week :
"He's not short of pace and you'd imagine a true-run two-mile race would be ideal. It will be interesting to see when he goes up to two and a quarter in the Deloitte, that will tell us a bit more.
Arctic Fire:
A horse that wont be on many peoples radar but he is a horse i really like but good ground is a must. Motionless winner first time out for the stable after being bought from France at Tipperary - gave weight and a beating to a solid yardstick in Enchanted Forest and Diyala in 3rd won a Novice hurdle since.
Would have won next time at Gowran Park when coming down, was full of running behind a wall of horses and clipped heels and came down.
But his real eyecatching run was his run in the Royal Bond behind The Tullow Tank when he arguably should have won. He was given way too much to do and made up a massive amount of ground up the straight, even more impressive as he was the only one to come from off the pace and he only went down by 1 1/2l at the line and was making ground hand over fist.
I think his last run in the Future Champions at Leopardstown can be written off as the ground was all wrong for him - Willie Mullins was interviewed on Attheraces the evening before and he said if there was any rain, Arctic fires chance would be gone and of course it proceeded to spill all night long and turned into a slog and that stuck in my head since. He has now got a mark of 138 which could be very interesting if they decided to travel over for a good ground betfair hurdle at Newbury but as with all Mullins handicap horses, we wont know till the final declarations!
So rightly or wrongly i have taken a view that the irish form is slightly better at this stage. The Deloitte is going to be an extremely informative race in 2 weeks and i reckon we will have some big market changes by the time that and the betfair hurdle have passed. The Tullow Tank is a thoroughly likeable sort, travels well through his races and jumps for fun. I think he possesses speed for a Supreme even though plenty disagree with me but also finds under pressure and will keep going to the line which can be a big bonus in a Supreme (Champagne Fever, Al Ferof in recent years). And i don't think he is finished improving yet. Arctic Fire is a more speculative one but i think there is definitely a big race in him and when he gets some decent ground you will see a much better horse than last time.
Selections
The Tullow Tank to win any race at the festival 8/1 Betfair Sportsbook(7/1 WH)
Arctic Fire 33/1 ew Corals